Investment Institute
Market Updates

May Monthly Investment Strategy - Joseki in international trade

KEY POINTS

Markets buoyed by further tariff easing, but tariff level has increased sharply and trade deals are unlikely to restore status quo ante. US fiscal bill may cause further market jitters as Moodys sovereign downgrade suggests.
Tariffs have caused GDP volatility with first US contraction in three years in Q1. Underlying growth strong in Q1, but this to fade and we forecast mild US recession.
Elsewhere tariffs have added to upside in GDP, although again likely temporary. We expect deceleration in global activity in H2, with mild recession in Eurozone.
Countries look set to offset weakening with domestic policy. ECB and BoE likely to ease more than markets price, BoC to continue easing. PBoC to add liquidity boosts from now and BoJ to hike once more this year.
Fiscal policy also used. Underway in Eurozone. Though China now to see less urgency. Several EM continue to ease fiscal policy, with or without the required space.

Related Materials

    Disclaimer

    This website is published by AXA Investment Managers Asia (Singapore) Ltd. (Registration No. 199001714W) for general circulation and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments, nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities. It has been prepared without taking into account the specific personal circumstances, investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person and may be subject to change without notice. Please consult your financial or other professional advisers before making any investment decision.

    Due to its simplification, this publication is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this publication is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this publication. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.

    All investment involves risk, including the loss of capital. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

    Some of the Services and/or products may not be available for offer to retail investors.

    This publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.