Outlook 2024
Mid-cycle adjustment, not end-cycle crash
For 2024 we expect lower growth, lower inflation and limited interest rate easing. We expect global GDP growth will reach 2.8%, down from an expected 3.0% in 2023 but anticipate acceleration in 2025. 2024 will be significant politically with the US Presidential Election likely to be most consequential globally.
What should investors expect in 2024?
Two questions are likely to be on investors’ minds as we enter 2024 – can bonds shake off their losing streak and can equities maintain their momentum? We believe they both can. However, the prospect of better performance for bonds relative to equities is greater than in recent years. We look at what 2024 could mean for investors.
There will only be limited scope for rate cuts until there is evidence of easing labour market pressures.
Our Investment Institute external Advisory Committee members share their expertise on the macroeconomic and climate-related opportunities and challenges for the year ahead.
US outlook
The US economy looks set to slow in 2024, though avoid recession, ahead of November’s Presidential election.
Eurozone outlook
Lacklustre growth looks set to persist against a backdrop of weaker demand and a mild rise in unemployment.
China outlook
China’s reliance on central government stimulus is delivering an unbalanced economy, and the upswings look set to fade into 2025.
UK outlook
After a tough year, the UK is expected to be on the cusp of recession in 2024, with modest growth in 2025.
Japan outlook
Japan is edging towards a turning point in its battle with deflation, though economic growth is likely to slow.
Emerging markets outlook
Softer global growth and tight financial condition are likely to prove headwinds for emerging markets in 2024.
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