Investment Institute
Macroeconomic Research

The key drivers of 10-year US Treasury yields

  • 18 January 2024 (7 min read)

Deconstructing 10-year UST drivers and the direction they could take in 2024

  • We analysed the sharp rise and subsequent fall in 10-year US Treasury yields, looking at the key components – the neutral rate, inflation expectations and term premia. We present a simple model of yields based on macro variables
  • We suggest each of the core components has contributed to a rise in yields compared to levels seen in the mid-2010s
  • Our yield model suggests, based on our forecasts – and market consensus – that we are unlikely to see 10-year yields fall significantly below current levels of around 4%
  • We believe there are some indicators that show concerns over fiscal sustainability have pushed yields up over the past year. We will monitor this in the context of the coming election, with neither Presidential candidate currently suggesting that Federal debt reduction is a priority

     
Read the full insight
Download article (411.03 KB)
June Monthly Investment Strategy - The times they are a-changin’
Macroeconomics Monthly Market Update

June Monthly Investment Strategy - The times they are a-changin’

  • by David Page, Hugo Le Damany, and others
  • 26 June 2024 (10 min read)
Investment Institute
US reaction: Fed unmoved on rates, tapers QT
Macroeconomics Market Alerts

US reaction: Fed unmoved on rates, tapers QT

Investment Institute

    Disclaimer

    This website is published by AXA Investment Managers Asia (Singapore) Ltd. (Registration No. 199001714W) for general circulation and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments, nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities. It has been prepared without taking into account the specific personal circumstances, investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person and may be subject to change without notice. Please consult your financial or other professional advisers before making any investment decision.

    Due to its simplification, this publication is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this publication is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this publication. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.

    All investment involves risk, including the loss of capital. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

    Some of the Services and/or products may not be available for offer to retail investors.

    This publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.